Team Toad Data Groupies - Skew-Normal Epidemic Modeling

US deaths, May 8, 2021

US Deaths

The latest model run was run April 21st using data through midnight, April 20, 2021, and is shown as a solid red line. The dashed red line shows the future values of this model run.

Symmetric versus Upper-bound model post-Thanksgiving

Now that we're well past the Christmas holidays with their choppy reporting, I've returned to using symmetric curve fitting.

Pre-Christmas model

The pre-Christmas model run on 12/24/20 using data through midnight 12/23/20 is shown as a green line, solid through the day of the run and dashed going forward. This model used the standard least-squares measure of fit. Note that the R-squared values reported are only for the data being fit... I don't update the scores for future data.

Last updated 08-May-2021 by, from Lazy Toad Ranch
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