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I updated the US cases and
US deaths using
data posted today for 1/15/2021, and ran new curve fits for both.
The new case model (left, red) is 11% higher than the pre-Christmas model (left, green), with a peak about one week later (Jan 1 at 223,655 before and Jan 8 at 247,792 in the new model). The new death model (right, red) is actually 4% lower than the pre-Christmas model (right, green), with a peak one day earlier (Jan 16 at 3,404 before and Jan 15 at 3,269 in the new model). |
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Added US cases and
US deaths using
data posted today for 1/12/2021.
Cases (left) are above the trend line from the pre-Christmas model run, but they are steady for the last 5 days (using a 7-day trailing average). Deaths (right) are higher, but are also growing less rapidly, and have just reached the pre-Christmas model trend line. |
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Added US cases and
US deaths using
data posted today for 1/08/2021.
Cases (left) are above the trend line from the pre-Christmas model run. That probably indicates a new acceleration in the spread of the virus. Deaths (right) are higher, but are not yet above the pre-Christmas model trend line. |
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Added US cases and
US deaths using
data posted today for 1/06/2021.
Cases are back to the trend line established before the Christmas holiday. The public expectation is that cases will climb sharply from here, assuming lots of family interaction over Christmas. Remember this model just fits the historical data, and has no knowledge of social interaction rates per se. As always, nothing predicts or prevents a new wave. Also added a new estimate for Case Fatality Rate (CFR) showing 1.224% for the last 21 days (shown at right). That corresponds to one death per 81 cases, an improvement over 1 death in 70 cases last month. |
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Graph Update, December 26, 2020The first version of the Data Groupies web site is up. The first thing to check out is the Theory page, which describes how I use the skew-normal distribution to model the cases and deaths in the coronavirus epidemic. |
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