Team Toad Data Groupies - Skew-Normal Epidemic Modeling

Introduction    Graphs    Blog    Theory    About    Contact

US cases and deaths, April 28, 2022

These are the main two charts showing the number of new cases and deaths in the US. Cases and deaths are each modeled as the sum of eight (8) individual waves, each specified by four parameters as described in the Theory Page.
United States, Daily new cases
US Cases
United States, Daily deaths
US Deaths

Latest graphs for India, May 8, 2020

India Daily new cases
India Cases
India Daily deaths
US Deaths

Last 21 days of cases and deaths as of April 14, 2021

These heat maps shows where the most new cases and were confirmed in the last 21 days on a county by county basis. This chart is normalized by population. Note that Oklahoma restated their numbers on April 7 adding 1,800 cases from previous months, making them appear to be much worse for recent deaths on this map.

Average daily new cases per million last 21 days, by county
Average daily deaths per million last 21 days, by county

A new wave of cases, March 28, 2021

It's clear that the cases numbers have started a new trend, so I ran a new series of genetic searches to the case data through March 26, 2021. The plot on the left superimposes all eight model runs together, and you can see that there is no real agreement from run to run.

This is typical when modeling the upside of a skew-normal curve, as there is rarely enough date to predict the "peak".

The thick red line is the run with the best R-square measure.

The chart on the right shows the actual trailing 7-day average, the sum of the five waves, and the individual waves for the best fitting of the eight genetic searches.

The press will likely call this the "Fourth wave", and we can see that the magnitude of this wave is already as large as the second wave last summer.

We do not yet see a corrsponding bump in daily deaths. It is possible that either a younger demographic or the vaccination of over two-thirds of the elederly population will prevent this case-bump from increases the numbers of deaths. Time will tell.

Daily new cases spaghetti plot 3/26/21

Daily new cases, five waves 3/26/21

Daily deaths per million, top six (6) US states, January 5, 2021

Choosing the six (6) states with the most deaths total, these charts show the daily deaths per million in each state. The left chart is a detail showing deaths from September 2020 through January 5, 2021. The right chart is the same data for the whole year.
Deaths per million per day, top 6 states
Detail chart showing Fall 2020
Deaths per million per day, top 6 states
Same chart but showing the whole year 2020

Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

This chart estimates the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) by dividing the 21 day trailing average of daily deaths by the trailing average of the number of new confirmed cases with a lag of 18 days.

The number for January 29, 2021 is 1.262%, meaning that for every 79 cases on December 19th average there was one death on January 6th, 2021.

The 18 day lag is based on examining the case and death charts, and has varied from 8 days in April to 20.5 days in August.

United States, estimated CFR

Latest World ex-China graphs, December 30, 2020

World ex-China, Daily new cases
US Cases
World ex-China, Daily deaths
US Deaths

Latest World ex-China ex-USA graphs, December 30, 2020

World ex-China ex-USA, Daily new cases
US Cases
World ex-China ex-USA, Daily deaths
US Deaths

Last updated 28-Apr-2022 by, from Lazy Toad Ranch
Web Site contents Copyright © 2000-2022 by Michael Mauldin