Team Toad Data Groupies - Skew-Normal Epidemic Modeling

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US cases and deaths, January 16, 2021

These are the main two charts showing the number of new cases and deaths in the US. Cases are modeled as four (4) individual waves, each specified by four parameters as described in the Theory Page.
United States, Daily new cases
US Cases
United States, Daily deaths
US Deaths

Daily deaths per million, top six (6) US states, January 5, 2021

Choosing the six (6) states with the most deaths total, these charts show the daily deaths per million in each state. The left chart is a detail showing deaths from September 2020 through January 5, 2021. The right chart is the same data for the whole year.
Deaths per million per day, top 6 states
Detail chart showing Fall 2020
Deaths per million per day, top 6 states
Same chart but showing the whole year 2020

Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

This chart estimates the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) by dividing the 21 day trailing average of daily deaths by the trailing average of the number of new confirmed cases with a lag of 18 days.

The number for January 6, 2021 is 1.224%, meaning that for 81 cases on December 19th average there was one death on January 6th, 2021.

The 18 day lag is based on examining the case and death charts, and has varied from 8 days in April to 20.5 days in August.

United States, estimated CFR

New cases by state last 21 days

This heat map shows where the most new cases were confirmed in the last 21 days on a state by state basis. This chart is not normalized by population.

New cases last 21 days, top 6 states
not normalized by population

Latest World ex-China graphs, December 30, 2020

World ex-China, Daily new cases
US Cases
World ex-China, Daily deaths
US Deaths

Latest World ex-China ex-USA graphs, December 30, 2020

World ex-China ex-USA, Daily new cases
US Cases
World ex-China ex-USA, Daily deaths
US Deaths

Last updated 16-Jan-2021 by, from Lazy Toad Ranch
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